According to democraticSPACE.com’s number-crunching of the latest polls, the Liberals begin the race in a position to win a very slim majority.
But the site also shows 30 out of 107 ridings are too close to call.
Here are the ten tightest races in the province:
Hamilton East – Stoney Creek, where the NDP’s Paul Miller is in a neck-and-neck race with former kids’ show host and news anchor Nerene Virgin, running for the Liberals
Brampton-Springdale, a PC / Liberal battle in a multicultural 905 riding where the faith-based school funding debate may influence the vote.
Kitchener Centre, where Tory candidate Matt Stanson hopes to unseat Liberal incumbent John Milloy.
Don Valley West, probably the most closely-watched local race in the province, as PC leader John Tory tries to take a Toronto seat from Liberal education minister Kathleen Wynne.
Oakville, another Liberal / PC battle in the 905 region, where Ontario elections are often settled.
Niagara Falls, a rematch from the 2003 election, as Liberal incumbent Kim Craitor defends the seat he took from former Tory MPP Bart Maves, who is running again.
Huron-Bruce, where the Tories will try to win back former cabinet minister Helen Johns’ seat, lost to the Liberals in 2003.
Willowdale, probably the only other Toronto riding – aside from Don Valley West – that the Tories have a shot of taking from the Liberals. The faith-based school funding issue could be a factor here.
York South-Weston, which was won easily by Liberal Joe Cordiano in 2003. Cordiano resigned from politics in 2006 and New Democrat Paul Ferreira won the subsequent byelection. Ferreira will try to hold off a challenge from OMNI Television anchor Laura Albanese, running for the Liberals.
Brampton West, yet another 905 battle, this one in a riding that Liberal Vic Dhillon took in 2003 from former Ontario health minister (and current federal health minister) Tony Clement.
Other tight battles, according to democraticSPACE.com, include one in the bellwether riding of Peterborough, a three-way fight in London-Fanshawe, a PC/NDP toss-up in Oshawa, and neck-and-neck races in three ridings with larger-than-average Jewish populations: Thornhill; Richmond Hill; and Ottawa West-Nepean, where Liberal cabinet minister (and former Ottawa mayor) Jim Watson faces a tough challenge from Tory Mike Patton, former communications director for current mayor, Larry O’Brien.
If all that is not enough to sate Ontario political junkies, watch TVO (i.e. where I work) tonight, for this.
You can also catch interviews from last week with John Tory and Dalton McGuinty, as well as panel discussions on the faith-based funding issue and on the race in Eastern Ontario (the last one produced by yours truly) by clicking here and here.