So how’s it going to end?
Will the Conservative government fall and be replaced by a Liberal/NDP coalition propped up by the Bloc Québecois?
Will Stephen Harper manage to prorogue Parliament and live to be Prime Minister for a little while longer?
Will we end up with our fourth election in 4.5 years and our second in three months? Or will a best-of-five coin flip decide on who gets to govern?
Or maybe Governor-General Michaëlle Jean will declare “off with their heads” and end up ruling by decree…
Here’s something to contemplate:
Anything can happen in Canadian politics.
That’s not a sentiment you hear too often from too many quarters. But after five days of things happening in Canadian politics that no one would have ever predicted, and with the prospect of another five days or five weeks or five months or so of unpredictable things happening in Canadian politics… well… that’s something to contemplate…
Here’s another interesting thing. Yesterday was exactly two years to the day that Stéphane Dion became leader of the Liberal Party of Canada.
And those two years may go down in history as some of the worst two years ever experienced by a leader of a major federal party in Canada.
They seemed to have culminated in a disastrous campaign and election loss this past October, which seemed to have sealed Dion’s fate as leader.
Here’s how I described it last month:
“Sadly for Dion, he will not get a second chance. The political promise that won the hearts of Liberal delegates on Dec. 2, 2006 got trumped by a deficit of political skills…”
Shows how much I know.
Well, I was probably right on the political skills part. But I may have been wrong on the second chance.
My crystal ball is as bad as anyone’s who claims to have one, but it looks as if Dion has about a 50-50 chance of shedding his likely epitaph of “Only the second Liberal leader in history never to become Prime Minister” and gaining one that reads “23rd Prime Minister of Canada”.
With an asterisk, of course, because he will be gone as Liberal leader next May whether or not he is also PM.
And then there is the matter of the 22nd Prime Minister of Canada.
As I write, Stephen Harper remains Prime Minister, and is using “every legal means at his disposal” to keep from losing the job. Will he succeed? People have lost money underestimating the man.
But no matter what happens to Harper going forward, this entire incident may have critically wounded his political career, the success of which depended on a reputation for competent management and serious purpose.
The wound was self-inflicted.
When Harper won a second minority mandate following an election this fall that many thought was unnecessary, his marching orders seemed clear:
Drop the extreme partisan shtick and get down to the serious work of governing this country through a looming economic crisis.
That’s what he said he was prepared to do on election night. And his statesmanlike tone continued into the opening of Parliament.
But on the major challenge of the day, the international economic crisis, he dropped the ball in what could be a history-changing way.
An economic update to set the agenda for dealing with the crisis instead became an opportunity for partisan political gamesmanship, which only succeeded in uniting opposition parties against the government.
Harper may survive in the short term. But he will come out of this one way or another as a weakened leader, his political future uncertain in a way that was unimaginable just a few days ago.
Programming note: If you are looking for a more in-depth look at all of the twists and turns of the ongoing Canadian political crisis, you could do worse that have a look or listen to an hour-long televised discussion I co-produced on Monday night. But you should tune in soon. At the pace that developments are developing, what gets discussed one night may be out of date by the next morning.